Intuition and Subjective Inference

Intuition and subjective inference.

To know whether something is a mistake, you need to know the correct answer. To know the correct answer, you need feedback. In an uncertain world, as we go through random events, we unfortunately end up depending on outcomes. Outcome-centered judgment is where cognitive bias begins. It creates the worst kinds of hindsight bias. We need to accept the fact that some things cannot be fully understood and look at reality as it is.

An ever-evolving list of cognitive biases.

We search for stories and patterns in sparse data.
Whenever there is a grid of information, we fill it with traits like stereotypes and generality.


Self-reinforcement: neglect of duration, recency effect, peak effect, self-reference effect.