'Forecast' and 'Foresight,' and Management
: Tracking essential change through insight
If tracking the shifts of phenomena through observation is forecasting, then tracking essential change through insight is foresight. Predictive knowledge, as a kind of probabilistic knowledge, splits into these two intellectual assets — one about phenomena, the other about essence — depending on what it looks at.
Without phenomena, the essence cannot show itself in the world; without essence, phenomena cannot be sustained. In the same way, forecast-type and foresight-type predictive knowledge are deeply connected when it comes to understanding the future, with strengths and weaknesses that complement each other. (p.131)
From Kim Gyeong-hoon's <99% of Business Is Prediction — The Uncertainty-Breaking Strategy Proposed by Korea's No.1 Trend Expert Kim Gyeong-hoon> (Leaders Book)
To drive a car fast on the highway, the driver has to be able to see "the distance" and "what's close" at the same time. That way you can look far ahead, drive fast, and still respond to the changing road conditions and move along safely without an accident. The author put it this way: the driver needs both close-up eyes and far-sighted eyes.
If you're like a beginner driver, too busy looking only at what's right in front of you, you can't handle the feeling of speed. On the other hand, staring only at the distance is a good way to get into a big accident.
Prediction comes in two forms — 'forecast' and 'foresight'. Forecasting means observing the surface of things and predicting the near future. It's tracking the shifts of phenomena through observation.
Foresight, on the other hand, means recognizing essential changes that the eye cannot see and predicting the far future. It's grasping the invisible, essential change through insight.
We have to live like skilled drivers, seeing "the distance" and "what's close" at the same time. While using 'foresight' to read the far future, we also have to use 'forecast' to respond to constantly shifting situations. The same goes for running a business and for managing yourself.
▶ Yeh Byung-il's Economy Note — Twitter: @yehbyungil / Facebook: www.facebook.com/yehbyungil
