KDI Economic Trends 2019/02/12
I was reading the KDI news materials and found the February 2019 domestic economic trends report, so I'm linking it from this post.
(Charles's normal note)
Every evaluation needs a benchmark. For instance, a Korean language exam is out of 100, a TOEIC score out of 990. Aren't economic indicators the same? I think so. And creating and agreeing on that benchmark matters more than simply performing a quantitative measurement — that's what I'd dare to ask KDI and famous economics practitioners.
I'd dare to say that ordinary people living inside the real economy may know better whether things are simply going up or down. That's because things like price exist separately as "official price" and "transaction price," and the gap between what those people punch into keyboards and calculators at their desks and what really happens can easily exceed the acceptable margin of error. For example, closing-down sales, card point accumulation, acquaintance sales, barter transactions, cash transactions (so-called underground transactions) — all of these are unknowable.
It's troubling enough when intellectuals hand over reports that are bundles of mechanical 0s and 1s, but more troubling is how politicians and journalists pick up these reports only when convenient. I get that parasitism is inevitable.. but please don't wipe out the seeds.. This isn't anger at their greed or self-interest, but pity for those who have fallen into psychological deprivation.
For reference, in the era of the so-called 4th industrial revolution, these kinds of intellectuals — the ones who grind away day and night under the banner of being objective and neutral, without insight or context — are expected to see their jobs disappear. Of course, because of their cartel, it might take a bit more time...
By The Way, this post was about to be filled with pure brain-fiction, so let me post the related summary article.
(KDI Economic Trends 2019/02/12 summary) ■ Overall assessment - Our economy is judged to be continuing the slowdown in both production and demand sides. ■ Our recent economy is judged to be continuing a slowdown trend on both the production and demand sides. ○ On the production side, mining/manufacturing output and service-industry output showed weak growth, and construction output also remained sluggish. - Mining/manufacturing output and service-industry output showed only marginal growth in most sectors other than semiconductors and health/social welfare. - Construction output continued a sharp decline, centered on the building sector. ○ On the demand side, both domestic demand and exports appeared weakened. - December retail sales showed weak growth, manufacturing inventory ratio rose, and the operating rate remained low — facility investment also continued to be sluggish. - January exports (by value) saw a widening decline centered on major items like semiconductors and oil products, and the global economic slowdown is also exerting downward pressure on exports. ■ Expert economic outlook survey (2019 01) ○ Domestic economic experts responded that the Korean economy is expected to grow around 2.5% in 2019 — lower than last year's 2.7%. ○ The late-January 2019 expert economic outlook survey was broadly similar to the previous survey, but some indicators showed that the recovery pace would weaken somewhat. ○ Exports (by value) will remain sluggish through the second half of this year due to the decline in world trade volume, and are expected to record a low annual growth rate of 2.2%. - The 2019 current account surplus is expected to gradually increase in the second half of the year but will decrease significantly compared to last year, falling below USD 60 billion. ○ The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.8%, the same as last year, but the number of employed (110,000) is projected to grow only slightly due to the impact of the domestic slowdown. ○ Consumer prices are expected to stay below the price stability target, showing weaker increases than initially expected due to falling oil prices. Meanwhile, most respondents expected the current base rate level to be maintained through the end of this year. |
