Recent update
Over the past two days, news has been circulating in the press and media that Apple is negotiating to change Safari's search engine from Google search to the DuckDuckGo search engine. DuckDuckGo is the search system and browser created by Gabriel Weinberg, the author of Super Thinking—the very book for this month's book study.
In fact, the relationship between DuckDuckGo and Apple has already been shared in the IT media for three years now.
덕덕고와 애플이 단짝인 이유 ‘개인정보 수집 방지’
마침내 사용자들이 ‘개인정보 보호의 중요성’과 ‘디지털 일상의 상세한 정보를 훔쳐가면서 통제되지 않는 하드웨어/소프트웨어의 위험’을 인지하기 시
www.itworld.co.kr
The book we'll be sharing in next month's book study is Super Thinking.
Last study was the book introduced (recommended) by the author in the final chapter.
?Psychology of Design: 106 Cognitive Biases & Principles That Affect Your UX
A complete list of cognitive biases and design principles. Tons of product examples, tips and checklists to improve your user experience.
growth.design
If I had encountered this book at a bookstore or library before learning about it through book club, the keyword would have been so grandiose that I'd have just walked past it. The book cover, too, is so flashy in its primary colors that it has the feel of someone hawking a miracle cure—though that may also just be my own personal bias. So I searched for the story behind it. Turns out the cover just kept the original English design and only swapped the English for Korean... yet the feeling is so different! It really drove home the importance of typography. As for the title, that was just due to my shallow knowledge. "Super thinking" was already an existing technical term. The terms repeatedly used in everyday life are called "mental models"; among these, the models that can be applied broadly in everyday life are called "super models." And using these super models directly in everyday life is what's called super thinking.
For reference, Super Thinking's authors Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann are husband and wife. They both attended undergrad and grad school at MIT, and now run DuckDuckGo (a search engine and browserthat don't collect users' personal information).
DuckDuckGo — 개인정보 보호, 간단합니다.
The Internet privacy company that empowers you to seamlessly take control of your personal information online, without any tradeoffs.
duckduckgo.com
Although the book introduces around 300 mental models (or psychological theories), it lays them out with examples, so it doesn't get too academic or stay at the level of just listing concepts. It's a really good book in that respect.
It is written so smoothly with case-based examples that it's easy to read without feeling burdened. It almost feels like a psychology version of "Knowledge in Wide and Shallow" (Korea's popular pop-knowledge series). But just like that series, this book also leaves an itch—you can't just close it after reading and saying "oh, I see." There are many parts that need deeper digging and many good models that you must keep practicing until they become second nature.
So I came up with a brief plan.
1) For each chapter, I organized the keywords mentioned (in progress).
2) Once organizing is done, I plan to add details on each model in a Notion table.
3) And I plan to join with the Notion table organized in the previous study.
4) I plan to compare and map the content with what's organized on Wikipedia.
So first, let me leave a record of 1) keyword organization...
Chapter 1 — Reduce mistakes
KEYWORDS: inverse thinking, unforced error, antifragile, arguing from first principles, de-risking, premature optimization, minimum viable product, Ockham's razor, conjunction fallacy, overfitting, KISS (keep it simple, stupid), frame of reference, framing, nudging, anchoring, availability bias, filter bubble, echo chamber, third story, most respectful interpretation, Hanlon's razor, fundamental attribution error, self-serving bias, veil of ignorance, original position, birth lottery, just world hypothesis, victim-blame, learned helplessness, paradigm shift, Semmelweis reflex, confirmation bias, backfire effect, dis-confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance, tribalism, thinking gray, Devil's advocate position, intuition, proximate cause, root cause, postmortem, 5 whys, optimistic probability bias
→ Explains how to reduce mistakes and increase correct judgments
Chapter 2 — Anything that can go wrong, will
KEYWORDS: tragedy of the commons, tyranny of small decisions, free rider problem, public goods, herd immunity, externalities, spillover effect, Coase theorem, cap-and-trade, moral hazard, principal-agent problem, asymmetric information, adverse selection, market failure, government failure, political failure, Goodhart's law, perverse incentive, cobra effect, Streisand effect, hydra effect, observer effect, chilling effect, collateral damage, blowback, boiling frog, short-termism, technical debt, path dependence, preserving optionality, precautionary principle, information overload, analysis paralysis, perfect is the enemy of good, reversible decision, irreversible decision, Hick's law, paradox of choice, decision fatigue, Murphy's law
→ Many people, when faced with unexpected results, say they were unpredictable, but if you look closely, those situations follow predictable patterns. The chapter analyzes how the situation came about
Chapter 3 — How to use time wisely
KEYWORDS: birth lottery (1), two-front war, multi-tasking, context-switch, deep work, Eisenhower Decision matrix, Sayer's law, Parkinson's Law, bike-shedding, Getting Things Done, opportunity cost, BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement), leverage, leveraging up – deleveraging – high-leverage activity, Pareto principle, power law distribution, law of diminishing returns, law of diminishing utility, negative return, short-termism (2), present bias, discount rate, discounted cash flow, net present value, hyperbolic discounting, commitment, default effect, Hofstadter's law, loss aversion, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, sunk-cost fallacy, cognitive dissonance (1), design pattern, anti-pattern, analysis paralysis (1), brute force, heuristic, heuristic rule, algorithm (step-by-step process), economies of scale, parallel processing, divide and conquer, reframe the problem, social engineering
→ Stresses the importance of having your own goals and explains that only by pursuing concrete goals can you decide where to invest your effort
Chapter 4 — Becoming one with nature
KEYWORDS: natural selection, the fittest, scientific method, inertia, confirmation bias (1), Shirky principle, Lindy effect, antifragile (1), peak, momentum model, flywheel, homeostasis, potential energy, center of gravity, activation energy, catalyst, forcing function
- Explains how commitment contributes to overcoming present bias. Commitment can act as a powerful catalyst — that is, a forcing function (continuous and regular meetings, culture) — that brings the activation energy needed to change a person or organization.
- Don't fight nature. Be cautious about head-on confrontations with high-inertia systems. Instead, observe the situation deeply, understand the dynamics behind it, and work toward high-leverage paths that are likely to bring timely change with a high probability of success.
critical mass, chain reaction, runaway reaction, tipping point, technology adoption (S curve), Diffusion of innovation, network effect, Metcalfe's law, cascading failure, butterfly effect, luck surface area (super-model — relaxing the rules of how you relate to the world), entropy (degree of disorder in a system), polarity, black-and-white fallacy, in-group favoritism, out-group bias, political psychology (the social identity theory of in-group behavior), zero sum
→ Discusses what mental models an organization at risk of collapse must apply in order to rise again
Chapter 5 — Lies, damned lies, and statistics
KEYWORDS: scientific method (4), Murphy's law (2), Theorie analytique des probabilites, anecdotal evidence, The Believing Brain, correlation does not imply causation, confounding factor, hypothesis, Texas sharpshooter fallacy, randomized controlled experiment, A/B testing, observer-expectancy bias (experimenter bias), placebo effect, nocebo effect, proxy, selection bias, nonresponse bias, survivorship bias, response bias, law of large numbers, gambler's fallacy (Monte Carlo fallacy), clustering illusion, regression to the mean, mean, median, mode, variance, outlier, standard deviation, normal distribution, probability distribution, central limit theorem, confidence interval, standard error, error bar, conditional probability (P(A|B)), base rate fallacy, Bayes theorem, Frequentist, Bayesian, confirmation bias (1), false positive, false negative, power (after fixing the false-positive rate, the sample size needed to ensure a sufficiently high probability of getting a correct result), null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, statistical significance, P value (under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true, the probability of obtaining a value as extreme as or more extreme than the observed value. Caveat: focusing on it too much leads to black-and-white thinking and selection bias. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.), replication crisis, data dredging, publication bias, systematic review, meta-analysis (combining multiple studies; improves precision and accuracy of estimates. But combining data from studies with very different designs and samples can be problematic. And the original studies' biases cannot be removed by themselves.)
→ Discusses how data-based decision-making is on the rise, and emphasizes that data based on real patterns can offer insights to companies and individuals alike
[Related books]
- Weaponized Lies (personally very impressive!)
- Weaponized Lies: A Guide to Critical Thinking in the Information Age
Weaponized Lies: A Guide to Critical Thinking in the Information Age
Daniel J. Levitin’s Weaponized Lies, originally published in September 2016 as A Field Guide to Lies, is a guide for critical thinking in…
medium.com
무기화된 거짓말
미국 아마존 베스트셀러. 옥스퍼드 영어사전에서 뽑은 2016년 올해의 단어가 ‘탈진실(post-truth)’인 만큼 전 세계적으로 진실의 붕괴는 큰 사회적 문제로 떠올랐다. 허위 지식, 반쪽 진실, 음모설
www.aladin.co.kr
--> And one more book discovered here: The Storytelling Animal (Jonathan Gottschall), The Crisis of Narration (Han Byung-Chul)
[알라딘]스토리텔링 애니멀
www.aladin.co.kr
서사의 위기
『피로사회』로 한국 사회를 뜨겁게 달궜던 재독 철학자 한병철이, 이번에는 빠르게 나타났다 사라지는 이슈만 좇느라 정작 자기의 생각으로부터 멀어져 버린 스토리 중독 사회를 고발한다.
www.aladin.co.kr
Chapter 6 — Decision making
KEYWORDS: pro-con list, grass-is-greener mentality, Maslow's hammer, cost-benefit analysis (drawbacks/benefits), opportunity cost (3), inflation, discount rate (3), sensitivity analysis, sensitivity (how something responds to alpha and beta — 5), garbage in, garbage out, decision tree, expected value, utility value, utilitarianism, black swan event, fat-tailed distribution, histogram (5), cascading failure (4), systems thinking (the effort to think in such a way that you grasp the entire system, then understand and explain how its components can produce unintended results through subtle interactions), Causal Loop Diagram (a system's feedback loops), stocks-and-flows diagram (representing how a system's components accumulate and flow), Le Chatelier's principle, hysteresis, path dependence (2), Monte Carlo simulation, local optimum, global optimum, unknown unknowns, 2x2 matrix (4), de-risking (1), mitigation plan, scenario analysis (scenario planning), thought experiment, counterfactual thinking, butterfly effect (4), lateral thinking, groupthink, bandwagon effect, divergent thinking, Devil's advocate position (1), divergent thinking, convergent thinking, The Wisdom of Crowds, prediction market, PredictIt, superforecasters, superforecasting, business case, arguing from first principles (1)
→ Introduces ways to consider the alternatives we can choose when a decision needs to be made
Chapter 7 — Resolving conflicts
KEYWORDS: arms race, game theory, prisoner's dilemma (with the tit-for-tat approach—an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth—cooperation produces better outcomes in the long run), 2x2 matrix (4), Nash equilibrium (A Beautiful Mind: a state where, if either party changes strategy, both end up worse off), reciprocity, quid pro quo (mutual help, give-and-take), commitment (small agreements and promises trigger cognitive dissonance (1)—the psychological discomfort that increases the chance you'll continue agreeing and committing. The foot-in-the-door technique. **similar to the hook-buttplug?), liking (mirror response — when people share commonalities or the same traits or behaviors, they like each other), social proof, in-group favoritism (4), scarcity (the fear of missing an opportunity), authority (passive judgment — obedience to instruction, supporting one's claims), meta-analysis (5), paradigm shift (1) *Most important is perspective. Framing (1), common sense (Thomas Paine's essay—a message urging the British colonists to declare independence) → social norms versus market norms (the concept of reciprocity), Predictably Irrational (the daycare case; you shouldn't recklessly replace social norms with market norms; irreversible decision (2)), ultimatum game → distributive justice (equal distribution), procedural justice (objective process), the framing of fair share versus fair competition (the controversy over race in college student evaluations), appeal to emotion, fear, uncertainty, doubt, FUD model ("Our competitor's product is dangerous"; "if this bill passes, you'll suffer worse outcomes"; the hellfire pitch), straw man (the method of distorting and reframing the opponent's claim by tying it to something else (a straw man)—a phenomenon in which, on a complex topic, instead of pointing out each other's actual claims, each side sets up its own straw man and rambles. Strategy of using the influence of a third party (the audience) to frame things to your advantage rather than resolve the dispute; redirecting attention from the fundamental "why" question to a "how" question), ad hominem (attacking the person rather than refuting the core argument; "Who do you think you are? You're not even an expert"—essentially slander; the strategy of attacking an opponent's authority to dispel their influence; framing the situation so that what's important is sidelined and easily-criticized targets are foregrounded). *Where is the line? design pattern (3), anti-pattern (3), dark pattern, Trojan horse, bait and switch, Potemkin village, inverse thinking (1). How to avoid conflicts. Mutually assured destruction, collateral damage (2), win-win (4), deterrence (collusion to discourage new entrants, lobbying to eliminate competitors and create regulations favorable to oneself, anti-net-neutrality laws), carrot-and-stick (reward and punishment), containment, stop the bleeding, root cause (1), quarantine (spam mail), flypaper theory, honeypot, domino effect, cascading failure (4), slippery slope argument, broken windows theory, herd immunity (2), gateway drug theory, correlation does not imply causation, arguing from first principles (1), loss-leader strategy, appeasement, opportunity cost (3), red line, commitment (3), zero-tolerance policy, call your bluff, war of attrition, hollow victory (Pyrrhic victory, meaningless victory), leverage (3), guerrilla warfare, invisible armies, generals always fight the last war, punching above your weight, endgame, exit strategy, preserving optionality (2), Hail Mary pass (a desperate last attempt with low chances but hoped-for success — the quarterback throwing a long pass into the end zone hoping to score the winning points), burn the boats, forcing function (4)
→ Discusses models that can help navigate confrontational situations
Chapter 8 — Drawing out people's potential
KEYWORDS: Joy's law, 10x engineer (team), introvert, extrovert, nature versus nurture, generalist, specialist, foxes versus hedgehogs, Peter principle, strategy (big picture, long-term, ultimate goal), tactic (detail, short-term, next step), institutional knowledge, unicorn candidate, directly responsible individual, bystander effect, power vacuum, hydra effect (2), deliberate practice, spacing effect, weekly one-on-one, 2x2 matrix (4), consequence-conviction matrix, fixed mindset versus growth mindset, Pygmalion effect, Golem effect, impostor syndrome, Dunning-Kruger effect, Maslow's hierarchy of needs, hindsight bias, counterfactual thinking (6), survivorship bias (5), self-serving bias (1), high-context vs. low-context (direct) communication culture, highest-leverage activity (3), winning hearts and minds, loyalist versus mercenaries, manager's schedule versus maker's schedule, deep work (3), Dunbar's number (no more than 150), the mythical man-month, boots on the ground,
- Accidental Empires (commando, infantry, police)
→ To lead members of an organization to achieve excellent results, you must take into account each individual's traits and assign them roles in which they can fully exercise their abilities
Chapter 9 — Wield market power
KEYWORDS: arbitrage, sustainable competitive advantage, flywheel (4), market power, consensus-contrarian matrix, following the crowd leads to regression to the mean (Chapter 5, Poor Charlie's Almanack), crowd-sourced dividends (6), first principles (1), technology adoption cycle (4), inertia (4), inverse thinking (1, why now? → what to do now), simultaneous invention, multiple discovery, first-mover disadvantage, product/market fit, resonant frequency (Chapter 8, the 10x team), customer development, scientific method (4), minimum viable product (1), OODA loop (observe – orient – decide – act), natural selection (4), pivot, jobs to be done, 5 whys (1), Maslow's hammer (6), what type of customer you are hunting, back of the envelope calculation, availability bias (1), bright spot, beachhead, idea maze, heat-seeking missile, moat (Buffett — building a sustainable competitive advantage), switching cost, lock-in, network effect (4), barriers to entry and barriers to exit, regulatory capture, availability bias and confirmation bias (1), winner-take-most market, only the paranoid survive, tipping point (4), counterfactual thinking (6), the innovator's dilemma, disruptive innovation, crossing the chasm (the fact that ideas, companies, and technologies most often fail to move from one side to the other)
→ Examines the factors that allow you to take a position of advantage in long-lasting competition
Conclusion
KEYWORDS: cargo cult, scientific method (4), circle of competence, Dunning-Kruger effect (8), design pattern (3), Maslow's hammer (6)
→ A few steps you should take to become a true super thinker:
First, find a partner with whom you can do super thinking together. Thinking alone about complex topics doesn't yield the best results. It's far better to share ideas with another person and get feedback. You don't have to share all topics with the same person — you can talk about political topics with one person and economic topics with someone else. But it's essential to talk with people who care about the core truth of a particular topic.
Second, write. Even if you don't make your writing public, the act of writing itself clarifies your thinking and makes you aware of holes in your argument. Joining online forums or blogs that discuss and analyze complex topics that interest you lets you both write and find a partner at the same time. Over time, your effort will broaden your circle of competence, as Warren Buffett calls it. Within that circle is the area you know well — your rich knowledge or experience. Within that area, you can think excellently, but outside it you cannot. The most dangerous area is just outside your circle of competence — the area you think you know well but actually don't.
If you accidentally step outside your circle of competence, your success rate is bound to drop. You may suffer the Dunning-Kruger effect, making mistakes because you don't know what you don't know. You may fail to recognize design patterns or apply them incorrectly. And by trying to solve every problem with the few techniques you know well, you may fail to find the best solution.
[Things that would be good to practice during the study session]
- 2x2 matrix: 306 (Nash equilibrium)
- The casino: The casino gives many things for free (reciprocity), makes you first buy chips with cash (commitment), provides experiences perfectly tailored to your interests (liking), shows you examples of people who hit the jackpot (social proof), uses your fear of losing money as bait to constantly propose deals (scarcity), and the dealer gives you inappropriate advice (authority). Be careful. There's a reason it's always the casino that rakes in the cash.
Additionally... [Books for follow-up reading]
Outside the Cognitive Box (Steven Sevush) https://www.yes24.com/Product/Goods/115034110
탈인지 - 예스24
식물과 아메바는 생각하는가? 우리가 지능적인 외계인을 만난다면, 우리는 그들이 우리에게 말하는 것을 이해할 수 있을까? 토머스 네이글의 유명한 질문처럼, 박쥐가 된다는 것은 어떠한 것인
www.yes24.com
Also worth knowing: [Cognitive Bias Codex]
A chart organized jointly by Buster Benson and John Manoogian, the Cognitive Bias Codex covers up to 180 cognitive bias keywords; they've shared it as an SVG with links to wikis online so you can check them right away. (Click the image for the original link →)
And the post he himself contributed
You are almost definitely not living in reality because your brain doesn’t want you to
Start by remembering these four giant problems our brains have evolved to deal with over the last few million years.
qz.com
